In a summer concert season soon to boast sold-out shows by `N Sync and a reunited Crosby, Stills, Nash & Young, it would seem teens and their Baby Boomer parents would have plenty to choose from. But music fans between the ages of 15 and 30 may be searching long and hard for hot shows. "There's plenty of classic rock and kiddy shows," says Ray Waddell of Amusement Business magazine. "But there's a hole for fans in their late teens and early twenties."
The phenomenon is not a new one for the concert industry, which in recent years has come to depend more heavily on aging acts to draw the biggest crowds. (Last year, for instance, Elton John, Celine Dion and Yanni were three of the top four grossing live acts.) At the same time, the all-important outdoor summer season, which kicks off in just a few weeks, has emerged as the make-or-break time for promoters. This year, nearly 60 percent of all concert business will be done during the three summer months. Last year, Americans bought $1.1 billion in concert tickets, more than half of which were for seats at summer performances.
For promoters, the most important trick is to lure affluent Boomers out to concerts during the warm months. They're the fans who don't think twice about paying $50 to $70 a ticket. And this summer, as usual, they'll have more than enough choices. Along with CSN&Y, there's Bruce Springsteen's eagerly awaited reunion tour with the E Street Band, as well as comebacks from Bad Company, J. Geils Band and Blondie. Meanwhile, hitting the road are John Mellencamp, Tom Petty, R.E.M., James Taylor, Chicago with the Doobie Brothers, Journey with Foreigner, Bob Dylan with Paul Simon, Jimmy Buffett, Cheap Trick, Rod Stewart and Charlie Daniels with Molly Hatchet and the Marshall Tucker Band.
In 1999, the business is also blessed with a booming teen market to help balance the Boomers. And steep ticket prices for those teen-targeted shows are not necessarily a problem for promoters, since most are sure to sell out in minutes. Besides, says Waddell, "parents are buying those tickets." Capitalizing on the teen dream craze in amphitheaters coast-to-coast will be `N Sync, Britney Spears and the Backstreet Boys, as well as the Nickelodeon-sponsored All That Music & More Festival, featuring B*Witched, 98 Degrees, Tatyana Ali, No Authority and Monica.
As for concerts targeted at fans who have high school degrees but no monthly mortgages yet, summer pickings appear to be thin. Among the standouts though are Alanis Morissette, Limp Bizkit, Lenny Kravitz with the Black Crowes and Everlast, Phish, and possible dates featuring the Goo Goo Dolls with Sugar Ray.
The lack of young, headlining rock acts has been a recurring problem throughout the Nineties, as artist development has often given way to one-hit wonders. Only a handful of bands, such as Dave Matthews, Phish, Pearl Jam, and Metallica have been able to sustain headlining careers. And this summer, two of those four, Metallica and Pearl Jam, are not touring Stateside.
The hole in the 18-35 market also reflects the recent demise of day-long summer festivals, which only a few years back dominated the business. Of course, the always-strong Lilith Fair will be back for its third year. And promotersreport positive response to Ozzfest, which features Black Sabbath, Fear Factory, Rob Zombie, Primus, and Godsmack in this year's lineup. But there's been no word yet about Lollapalooza, H.O.R.D.E., Furthur Fest or Smokin' Grooves. Promoters note that if those festivals are going to make a run at this summer, time is quickly running out.
And while Smokin' Grooves may or may not gear up again, more rap and R&B tours are going out on the road. Coming on the heels of this spring's successful Hard Knock Life tour, featuring Jay-Z and DMX, R. Kelly will tour with Foxy Brown, Busta Rhymes, Nas, Deborah Cox and Kelly Price.
On the country side, George Strait's Country Music Festival, starring Tim McGraw and the Dixie Chicks, will fill football stadiums and most likely walk away as the summer's biggest box office draw, taking in a projected $30 million with just 18 shows. Nice summer work if you can get it.
ERIC BOEHLERT
(April 15, 1999)